* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 59 69 78 83 89 93 98 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 38 49 59 69 78 83 89 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 36 42 52 63 72 79 86 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 14 15 14 13 11 9 16 15 15 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -7 -7 -6 -8 -6 -1 0 -1 1 2 1 SHEAR DIR 70 76 78 74 70 67 37 356 3 349 350 318 328 SST (C) 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 136 137 139 143 147 150 152 153 155 152 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 137 137 139 145 149 154 157 159 165 165 166 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 12 14 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 57 55 53 53 52 48 49 47 47 47 53 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 13 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 21 16 3 1 6 11 20 28 36 42 46 49 56 200 MB DIV 26 28 26 22 5 -16 -14 -11 -3 8 -12 20 39 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 2 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 0 0 -2 LAND (KM) 1430 1324 1216 1116 1037 875 720 431 288 346 339 302 295 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.3 13.1 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.6 15.0 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.5 46.1 47.6 49.0 51.9 54.8 57.8 61.0 64.3 68.2 72.8 78.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 15 14 14 15 14 15 16 18 21 25 27 HEAT CONTENT 18 35 34 20 21 33 37 58 50 40 88 51 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 482 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 1. -1. -1. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 24. 34. 44. 53. 58. 64. 68. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 42.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.16 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.24 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.2% 11.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 12.1% 5.7% 1.9% 0.9% 5.1% 18.7% 41.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.3% Consensus: 2.6% 8.9% 5.6% 2.9% 0.3% 1.7% 10.2% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 38 49 59 69 78 83 89 93 98 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 46 56 66 75 80 86 90 95 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 40 50 60 69 74 80 84 89 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 30 40 50 59 64 70 74 79 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT