* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 69 78 84 87 92 100 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 69 78 84 87 92 100 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 29 31 37 45 55 68 78 83 87 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 13 13 11 10 11 13 16 15 17 14 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -9 -7 -6 -5 -6 -7 -7 -2 1 0 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 65 68 80 88 86 72 51 23 9 3 339 8 342 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.7 29.0 29.0 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 137 140 143 149 153 153 147 151 154 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 136 141 144 147 152 157 156 151 158 164 164 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.8 -53.4 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 12 700-500 MB RH 62 59 62 59 56 54 54 53 57 55 56 53 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 10 12 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 19 4 2 12 17 27 35 39 42 55 52 200 MB DIV 39 22 9 9 14 -31 -45 -24 -5 11 -13 -22 0 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -1 1 7 -2 -1 -7 -4 -3 -4 -1 3 LAND (KM) 1585 1468 1349 1209 1091 891 658 359 110 188 311 266 305 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.4 14.5 14.3 14.1 13.5 12.5 11.9 11.6 12.4 13.4 14.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.0 43.0 44.9 46.8 48.7 52.1 55.2 57.9 60.4 63.0 66.2 70.0 74.8 STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 18 19 18 16 14 14 12 15 18 21 25 HEAT CONTENT 8 19 38 28 21 34 44 56 47 42 34 58 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 24. 35. 44. 53. 59. 62. 67. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.1 41.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.15 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.47 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.76 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 14.9% 11.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 20.0% 10.6% 4.0% 3.0% 13.5% 26.0% 49.1% Bayesian: 1.2% 3.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 3.6% 12.7% 7.5% 3.7% 1.0% 4.6% 13.2% 16.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 35 39 49 60 69 78 84 87 92 100 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 35 45 56 65 74 80 83 88 96 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 39 50 59 68 74 77 82 90 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 40 49 58 64 67 72 80 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT