* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 61 69 75 81 88 94 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 61 69 75 81 88 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 36 44 54 65 75 85 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 20 18 15 12 8 11 15 22 14 15 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -6 -7 -4 -4 -6 -8 -6 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 63 66 76 81 82 81 60 11 349 5 355 343 308 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.1 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 134 134 134 137 138 142 148 152 155 157 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 136 134 134 137 139 145 154 161 164 167 162 161 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.2 -54.6 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.2 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 13 13 14 12 700-500 MB RH 67 65 62 62 61 56 56 51 52 49 51 54 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 14 13 2 5 10 10 24 28 24 31 59 200 MB DIV 80 45 38 35 22 29 -6 -32 -22 -17 -6 7 5 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -4 -2 0 1 -1 -4 -6 -4 0 -4 4 LAND (KM) 1591 1461 1359 1265 1179 1052 947 703 438 401 315 276 263 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.3 13.4 13.8 14.0 14.3 14.5 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 39.9 41.7 43.2 44.6 46.0 48.9 52.0 55.6 59.6 63.8 68.2 72.8 77.8 STM SPEED (KT) 19 16 14 14 14 14 17 18 21 20 21 24 24 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 23 33 31 21 36 39 43 53 89 61 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 415 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 27. 36. 44. 50. 56. 63. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.0 39.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 21.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.74 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.35 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.1% 11.7% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 10.2% 4.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.9% 5.1% 33.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.5% 8.8% 5.5% 2.8% 0.0% 0.3% 5.6% 11.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 43 52 61 69 75 81 88 94 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 41 50 59 67 73 79 86 92 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 35 44 53 61 67 73 80 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 44 52 58 64 71 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT