* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 31 34 42 49 59 68 74 81 89 96 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 31 34 42 49 59 68 74 81 89 94 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 32 37 44 54 66 78 88 85 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 18 19 17 14 7 7 10 14 11 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -7 -8 -8 -10 -10 -2 -4 -6 -1 -3 2 0 SHEAR DIR 63 64 64 73 82 102 92 38 20 21 43 333 37 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.1 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 131 134 138 142 148 153 152 140 137 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 130 131 136 141 147 155 161 159 144 141 142 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 62 62 56 55 54 53 58 57 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 33 23 20 17 7 14 5 20 25 31 41 51 200 MB DIV 80 73 40 31 37 1 -37 -54 -38 -9 14 -16 -2 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 6 -2 0 -4 -1 1 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1859 1743 1640 1525 1405 1144 932 757 428 115 122 143 10 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.3 12.6 12.1 11.8 11.8 11.8 12.0 LONG(DEG W) 37.0 38.6 40.1 41.7 43.3 46.8 50.4 53.9 57.3 60.7 63.9 67.1 70.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 16 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 8 10 23 25 27 34 61 47 24 21 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 34. 43. 49. 56. 64. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.2 37.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 104.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.5% 11.2% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 13.5% 6.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.1% 7.8% 33.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 9.9% 5.9% 2.9% 0.2% 0.7% 6.3% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 31 34 42 49 59 68 74 81 89 94 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 40 47 57 66 72 79 87 92 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 41 51 60 66 73 81 86 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 33 43 52 58 65 73 78 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT