* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/14/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 61 68 72 75 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 61 68 72 75 82 84 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 29 32 36 42 49 56 64 70 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 16 19 22 21 17 15 13 12 13 13 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -6 -8 -9 -6 -2 -6 -4 -3 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 43 62 63 61 72 86 71 36 29 350 4 307 281 SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 130 130 135 139 145 147 148 148 147 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 131 130 129 130 136 140 147 147 149 147 145 149 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 67 64 60 58 59 58 60 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 11 10 9 8 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 44 40 32 31 17 17 24 32 24 12 13 0 -1 200 MB DIV 101 85 60 37 35 24 -8 -35 -47 -34 4 15 30 700-850 TADV -4 0 0 0 0 1 0 -4 -3 -2 -5 -2 5 LAND (KM) 1912 1908 1800 1685 1570 1317 1077 852 727 707 585 486 515 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.2 12.7 12.0 11.8 12.1 13.2 14.3 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.1 36.4 37.8 39.2 40.6 43.7 46.6 49.3 51.6 53.9 56.2 58.3 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 14 15 13 13 11 12 12 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 10 8 29 21 20 32 36 55 40 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 36. 43. 47. 50. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.8 35.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/14/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.42 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.29 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 93.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 11.5% 8.7% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 7.8% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 9.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0% 3.1% 9.2% 22.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.6% Consensus: 1.7% 7.6% 4.2% 2.0% 0.0% 1.0% 5.7% 7.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 08/14/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/14/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 44 51 61 68 72 75 82 84 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 41 48 58 65 69 72 79 81 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 35 42 52 59 63 66 73 75 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 26 33 43 50 54 57 64 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT