* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 56 62 69 71 72 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 38 47 56 62 69 71 72 76 79 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 48 55 61 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 20 22 20 17 10 4 9 20 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -3 -1 -4 0 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 46 55 58 54 49 58 46 49 319 287 290 275 355 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 131 131 130 133 132 133 135 135 137 138 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 129 129 128 130 125 128 136 139 138 132 135 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 72 67 66 64 69 70 67 62 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 14 14 13 13 11 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 42 39 41 38 39 32 30 20 4 -24 -28 -53 -81 200 MB DIV 68 79 70 60 39 61 8 11 -22 -11 11 17 -33 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 -3 -5 -2 -3 -7 0 7 21 12 13 LAND (KM) 1778 1912 1912 1802 1695 1490 1330 1290 1293 1353 1415 1317 1138 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.8 13.0 13.0 13.0 12.4 11.9 12.2 13.7 16.2 19.1 22.0 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 33.8 35.1 36.3 37.5 38.7 40.6 42.1 42.9 44.7 47.6 51.0 53.7 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 11 10 5 7 16 21 21 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 10 17 16 13 15 19 36 21 15 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 458 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 12. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 31. 37. 44. 46. 47. 51. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 33.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.43 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.14 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.69 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 9.9% 7.4% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 7.2% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% 2.1% 7.1% 20.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.7% 5.1% Consensus: 1.2% 6.6% 3.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.7% 4.5% 8.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/14/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 38 47 56 62 69 71 72 76 79 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 35 44 53 59 66 68 69 73 76 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 29 38 47 53 60 62 63 67 70 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 29 38 44 51 53 54 58 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT