* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 46 52 59 63 66 68 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 41 46 52 59 63 66 68 71 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 33 35 38 44 50 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 10 10 13 11 11 4 4 11 19 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 3 3 5 4 5 0 0 -2 -3 -2 5 -6 SHEAR DIR 21 28 16 354 356 328 320 340 297 320 287 246 226 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 26.6 26.3 26.8 27.0 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 135 133 123 121 125 126 130 137 141 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 141 137 132 131 124 125 125 124 129 137 138 146 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.3 -53.9 -53.7 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 8 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 67 67 67 66 65 60 59 64 62 63 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 40 43 48 43 44 32 42 33 8 10 -15 -28 200 MB DIV 35 25 32 34 65 63 43 7 8 -9 8 34 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -8 -11 -10 -8 -2 0 -6 1 LAND (KM) 772 929 1055 1168 1292 1600 2051 1695 1454 1385 1313 1145 809 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 14.2 15.5 16.3 16.0 15.7 16.7 18.1 19.7 20.7 LONG(DEG W) 24.5 26.0 27.2 28.3 29.5 32.4 37.2 41.7 44.9 48.0 51.4 54.9 58.4 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 12 13 19 24 18 15 17 19 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 20 18 15 21 17 11 3 10 35 19 22 23 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 21. 27. 34. 38. 41. 43. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 24.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 129.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 41.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/14/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 41 46 52 59 63 66 68 71 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 39 44 50 57 61 64 66 69 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 38 44 51 55 58 60 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 29 35 42 46 49 51 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT