* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 59 64 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 59 64 68 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 30 33 39 46 53 59 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 12 13 7 9 3 8 9 9 13 24 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 10 7 6 11 4 1 -5 -1 0 -3 0 7 SHEAR DIR 47 338 355 2 347 348 349 100 72 24 303 250 221 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.2 26.4 27.2 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 139 139 139 130 122 129 130 128 129 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 140 139 140 133 124 130 126 127 131 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 -54.2 -53.7 -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 9 11 700-500 MB RH 69 67 67 67 67 66 63 64 62 65 58 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 21 17 30 37 40 40 45 44 36 16 27 15 200 MB DIV 50 45 40 38 60 63 19 18 -3 -1 0 18 62 700-850 TADV 2 2 -3 -8 -6 -3 -1 0 -3 0 0 1 -1 LAND (KM) 418 571 728 861 1006 1385 1857 1783 1524 1472 1480 1379 1109 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.4 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.8 15.4 14.4 13.8 14.9 17.1 18.7 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 21.1 22.6 24.1 25.4 26.8 30.4 34.8 38.8 41.5 43.6 46.8 51.1 55.2 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 13 15 20 22 17 10 15 21 22 18 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 17 23 16 14 8 10 12 26 19 18 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 19. 26. 34. 39. 43. 45. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 21.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.79 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 120.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/13/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 51 59 64 68 70 70 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 42 49 57 62 66 68 68 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 37 44 52 57 61 63 63 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 29 36 44 49 53 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT