* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 46 53 60 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 46 53 60 64 66 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 34 35 39 44 52 57 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 6 12 12 4 4 13 13 11 18 23 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 10 6 7 10 0 -4 -4 2 0 4 6 SHEAR DIR 47 32 328 328 319 318 40 101 53 354 287 246 261 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.5 26.7 27.5 27.8 27.1 27.0 27.8 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 140 141 142 134 125 132 133 129 130 139 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 142 144 145 140 128 132 129 131 136 146 154 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -53.8 -54.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 68 68 67 67 68 67 67 62 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 24 28 29 44 49 33 42 35 25 23 27 38 200 MB DIV 30 36 44 61 65 81 32 43 17 16 11 34 53 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 -3 -6 -9 4 0 1 2 9 -2 1 LAND (KM) 283 452 619 775 941 1335 1817 1782 1600 1577 1529 1317 879 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.3 13.2 13.2 13.3 14.2 14.4 13.4 13.0 14.8 17.3 18.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 19.7 21.4 23.0 24.5 26.1 29.9 34.4 38.0 39.8 41.9 46.2 51.6 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 16 21 21 14 9 19 27 26 22 HEAT CONTENT 5 7 11 20 17 15 8 13 13 11 19 21 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 21. 28. 35. 39. 41. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 19.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 106.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 46 53 60 64 66 67 67 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 43 50 57 61 63 64 64 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 38 45 52 56 58 59 59 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 36 43 47 49 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT