* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 08/13/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 65 67 68 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 32 34 35 37 42 49 56 61 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 2 7 12 8 2 12 10 10 11 14 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 13 11 8 6 8 9 -5 -3 0 2 8 4 SHEAR DIR 34 20 346 322 328 278 342 89 81 356 274 246 263 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.0 27.4 27.8 27.2 27.0 27.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 136 142 142 137 128 131 134 130 129 138 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 139 146 146 143 131 131 131 132 135 143 150 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.1 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 10 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 69 69 69 71 71 70 64 59 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 6 26 32 34 47 40 29 24 23 29 21 22 200 MB DIV 14 24 34 55 67 85 67 25 30 -5 6 24 7 700-850 TADV 5 5 5 1 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 0 13 1 -3 LAND (KM) 140 296 468 647 825 1212 1672 1896 1682 1610 1511 1393 986 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.3 13.7 13.8 13.2 12.8 14.5 16.6 18.0 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 18.1 19.9 21.6 23.3 25.0 28.7 33.0 36.6 38.7 41.1 45.3 50.4 55.0 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 19 20 15 10 19 25 24 21 HEAT CONTENT 8 5 8 11 22 18 14 10 17 10 30 21 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 13. 18. 26. 32. 37. 40. 42. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.5 18.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 08/13/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.07 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.4 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 08/13/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 34 38 43 51 57 62 65 67 68 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 35 40 48 54 59 62 64 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 35 43 49 54 57 59 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 27 35 41 46 49 51 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT