* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/19/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 54 56 53 51 46 41 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 54 56 53 51 46 41 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 37 45 52 54 51 50 50 52 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 26 24 24 20 10 9 20 26 34 25 25 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 -3 0 6 4 8 11 SHEAR DIR 285 291 283 271 266 247 310 293 283 276 262 253 221 SST (C) 20.6 20.3 20.0 19.5 18.9 17.8 17.2 5.0 6.6 3.3 0.4 -0.1 0.3 POT. INT. (KT) 80 79 79 78 78 77 77 65 61 62 65 N/A 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 71 71 72 72 72 73 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -58.3 -58.7 -59.1 -59.6 -60.3 -60.0 -58.8 -58.3 -58.2 -57.6 -57.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 56 58 60 56 47 47 50 50 59 71 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 19 18 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 165 161 157 160 157 143 115 120 93 81 81 45 69 200 MB DIV 11 8 22 28 21 22 24 -14 -22 -17 28 24 55 700-850 TADV 2 1 5 7 10 6 5 12 17 22 30 21 18 LAND (KM) 1970 1959 1936 1878 1776 1434 892 467 347 237 70 145 156 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 32.0 32.6 33.5 34.8 38.3 41.9 43.4 43.6 44.6 47.9 51.5 54.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 40.5 39.8 39.3 39.0 39.8 44.1 49.4 52.5 52.5 51.9 53.4 55.6 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 15 21 25 16 6 11 19 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -3. -1. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -6. -12. -17. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 14. 19. 23. 25. 29. 31. 32. 30. 30. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 23. 21. 16. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 41.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.18 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.59 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.12 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 101.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/19/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 45 50 54 56 53 51 46 41 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 42 47 51 53 50 48 43 38 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 42 46 48 45 43 38 33 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 37 39 36 34 29 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT