* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 47 56 65 65 61 56 49 44 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 47 56 65 65 61 56 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 38 39 43 52 61 59 57 57 56 55 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 27 25 23 24 14 11 21 27 35 29 29 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 -2 -5 -2 -5 -4 -1 -2 3 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 287 285 291 281 270 265 297 275 288 304 303 274 270 SST (C) 20.7 20.6 20.3 19.9 19.4 18.2 17.6 11.1 13.7 19.4 18.8 21.7 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 80 80 79 79 78 77 77 68 68 79 81 91 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 72 72 72 72 72 72 73 66 65 73 78 87 94 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.6 -58.3 -58.7 -59.0 -60.3 -60.1 -59.2 -58.9 -59.1 -58.6 -56.3 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 2 3 4 700-500 MB RH 55 57 56 58 60 52 48 54 45 39 34 23 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 20 19 18 15 19 23 22 20 18 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 168 168 160 155 151 156 134 140 107 96 54 80 76 200 MB DIV 5 13 7 23 28 29 22 -17 -43 -25 -62 -58 -35 700-850 TADV 0 2 1 5 6 24 -1 3 5 11 10 5 0 LAND (KM) 1969 1980 1964 1932 1865 1583 1140 667 583 800 1290 1926 2202 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.5 32.0 32.7 33.7 36.7 40.0 42.1 41.5 39.5 35.1 29.6 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 41.8 41.1 40.4 39.7 39.2 39.5 42.4 47.7 52.1 53.5 52.3 49.5 45.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 10 12 17 23 20 13 15 28 28 24 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 13. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. 28. 26. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -6. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 22. 31. 30. 26. 21. 14. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.3 41.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.8 to -3.1 0.60 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.08 0.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 7.8% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 47 56 65 65 61 56 49 44 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 44 53 62 62 58 53 46 41 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 38 47 56 56 52 47 40 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 39 48 48 44 39 32 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT