* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 47 47 46 46 43 42 41 40 36 56 V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 47 47 46 46 43 42 41 40 36 56 V (KT) LGEM 45 45 46 48 49 51 50 50 50 52 52 54 61 Storm Type SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 24 24 27 28 27 25 17 17 16 16 21 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 -5 -1 0 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 279 284 280 277 280 280 273 272 268 272 281 300 302 SST (C) 20.4 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.3 20.5 19.2 17.5 16.5 15.4 14.5 13.7 13.1 POT. INT. (KT) 76 79 82 85 86 84 79 74 72 70 67 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 70 74 78 80 78 74 69 67 66 64 62 63 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.5 -56.5 -56.9 -57.0 -58.4 -59.8 -60.8 -61.0 -61.2 -61.3 -62.1 -62.7 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.7 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.5 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 51 52 51 50 50 57 55 41 36 40 44 44 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 22 21 20 18 16 12 9 7 6 3 22 850 MB ENV VOR 177 180 182 178 175 135 104 71 37 18 -7 -16 -34 200 MB DIV 0 -4 -23 2 11 12 15 12 14 1 10 -3 7 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 0 4 4 10 10 13 7 10 16 22 LAND (KM) 1823 1844 1927 2046 2143 2187 1996 1718 1493 1277 1084 1002 1011 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 31.5 30.8 30.0 29.7 31.2 34.6 37.9 40.3 42.6 44.5 46.1 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 44.5 44.5 44.2 43.2 41.5 37.5 35.6 35.9 36.8 38.0 39.5 39.8 39.3 STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 9 13 16 19 18 14 13 12 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 19. 22. 26. 29. 31. 31. 31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -9. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.7 44.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.14 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.60 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.01 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 188.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.75 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 7.6% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 2.8% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 46 46 47 47 46 46 43 42 41 40 36 56 18HR AGO 45 44 44 45 45 44 44 41 40 39 38 34 54 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 41 41 38 37 36 35 31 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 34 31 30 29 28 24 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT