* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 45 45 44 43 42 46 53 54 52 48 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 45 45 44 43 42 46 53 54 52 48 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 44 44 45 48 51 53 56 61 62 62 63 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 22 24 23 26 22 23 14 13 16 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 283 287 285 284 283 280 278 276 269 312 291 329 329 SST (C) 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.3 20.5 21.0 20.6 19.6 18.0 17.6 15.0 18.3 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 78 78 77 76 78 82 82 80 78 78 72 79 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 71 70 68 68 70 74 76 74 73 74 69 75 82 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -56.4 -56.8 -58.1 -59.4 -60.5 -60.1 -59.3 -57.7 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 1.7 0.6 -0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 47 47 52 54 55 55 57 59 54 56 59 46 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 24 23 20 19 16 16 19 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 190 179 178 176 184 178 162 137 159 184 210 167 172 200 MB DIV -10 -17 -17 10 2 3 13 25 27 14 2 -63 -57 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 2 0 0 8 -1 2 5 0 -3 LAND (KM) 1737 1796 1824 1832 1866 2009 2085 1960 1617 1037 727 1127 1673 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.0 31.9 31.9 31.6 30.7 31.1 33.5 37.1 40.7 40.6 36.6 32.1 LONG(DEG W) 45.2 44.4 43.9 43.7 43.6 42.3 39.7 37.8 38.4 43.2 49.8 51.8 48.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 3 2 5 9 14 15 22 28 21 24 29 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):120/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -11. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 9. 12. 16. 18. 20. 24. 26. 28. 26. 24. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -17. -18. -16. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 1. 8. 9. 7. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.3 45.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.08 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 45 45 44 43 42 46 53 54 52 48 18HR AGO 45 44 43 44 44 43 42 41 45 52 53 51 47 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 42 41 40 39 43 50 51 49 45 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 33 32 36 43 44 42 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT