* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 51 50 50 49 48 47 47 54 58 58 59 V (KT) LAND 50 51 51 50 50 49 48 47 47 54 58 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 51 53 54 54 52 53 57 61 63 64 66 Storm Type SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 23 26 28 23 22 23 17 4 9 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -2 -6 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 261 270 271 277 282 284 284 272 252 291 335 323 305 SST (C) 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.1 20.1 19.7 20.0 18.9 17.8 15.7 18.3 19.9 POT. INT. (KT) 77 80 83 85 84 78 73 79 79 78 73 79 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 70 73 76 78 77 71 66 72 73 74 70 74 80 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.3 -55.5 -55.1 -55.4 -57.2 -58.5 -58.4 -59.0 -59.2 -58.9 -57.7 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 2.9 1.9 2.2 2.6 2.5 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.9 0.7 1.5 1.7 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 2 0 1 3 700-500 MB RH 47 48 47 48 53 60 60 58 60 58 57 51 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 26 25 24 22 20 18 17 19 20 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 198 194 207 202 193 169 181 211 195 181 201 217 204 200 MB DIV -12 -22 -38 -15 14 3 17 12 30 20 -18 -44 -41 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 -2 0 4 11 9 0 0 7 2 LAND (KM) 1638 1723 1866 1990 2025 1874 1771 1844 1774 1345 860 1046 1594 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 32.0 30.9 30.2 30.5 32.4 32.9 32.7 34.7 38.8 40.5 37.5 32.9 LONG(DEG W) 47.1 46.7 45.8 44.2 42.4 41.5 42.7 41.5 39.2 40.6 46.7 50.4 48.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 11 14 15 13 8 1 9 18 24 22 23 26 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -20. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 9. 11. 15. 18. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -17. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 13. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 4. 8. 8. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 32.7 47.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.54 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.04 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.9 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 166.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 51 50 50 49 48 47 47 54 58 58 59 18HR AGO 50 49 49 48 48 47 46 45 45 52 56 56 57 12HR AGO 50 47 46 45 45 44 43 42 42 49 53 53 54 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 38 37 37 44 48 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT