* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912017 04/17/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 49 49 48 45 45 44 49 56 58 58 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 49 49 48 45 45 44 49 56 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 49 51 52 54 53 54 56 59 63 64 66 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 21 23 23 24 18 23 13 5 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 -2 -5 -5 -2 -4 -5 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 266 275 276 279 286 279 280 273 279 323 314 318 SST (C) 19.4 19.6 19.9 20.4 20.7 20.5 20.5 20.3 19.4 17.9 17.5 18.4 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 75 77 78 80 81 78 77 80 79 78 77 79 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 68 70 71 73 73 70 69 73 73 73 73 74 78 200 MB T (C) -56.5 -56.5 -56.5 -55.9 -55.6 -56.4 -57.3 -58.5 -58.9 -59.6 -59.2 -58.2 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) 3.4 2.9 1.9 2.1 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.9 1.2 2.0 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 2 700-500 MB RH 46 50 49 48 51 57 58 58 61 59 58 57 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 28 26 25 23 21 19 17 18 20 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 187 196 194 192 194 180 177 174 170 169 198 221 209 200 MB DIV -30 -7 -16 -22 -10 5 2 16 23 19 14 -21 -52 700-850 TADV 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 7 -6 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 1547 1606 1698 1797 1886 1906 1912 1945 1892 1535 984 926 1443 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.1 32.4 31.7 31.2 31.6 31.7 32.0 33.7 37.5 40.4 38.7 34.0 LONG(DEG W) 47.3 46.7 46.1 45.3 44.2 42.6 42.2 40.8 38.7 39.2 44.5 49.9 49.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 9 4 3 10 15 22 25 22 25 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -18. -19. -19. -20. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 6. 10. 12. 16. 19. 20. 23. 25. 26. 25. 23. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -21. -21. -19. -18. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 15. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -1. 6. 8. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.5 47.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.65 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.03 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.00 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 157.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912017 INVEST 04/17/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912017 INVEST 04/17/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 49 49 49 48 45 45 44 49 56 58 58 18HR AGO 50 49 49 49 49 48 45 45 44 49 56 58 58 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 45 42 42 41 46 53 55 55 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 39 36 36 35 40 47 49 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT