* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/28/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 52 55 56 55 52 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 37 31 34 33 30 23 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 34 35 36 38 32 29 33 37 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 13 12 14 19 11 19 17 27 32 50 56 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -2 -2 -4 2 SHEAR DIR 115 125 154 170 172 224 236 259 266 268 261 253 257 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 155 155 155 152 147 145 143 148 148 151 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 133 132 130 123 118 113 115 120 125 134 136 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -54.9 -53.8 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 7 8 4 7 4 6 4 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 43 43 45 48 49 51 53 57 56 58 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -33 -48 -58 -63 -45 -26 -33 -19 13 45 68 68 200 MB DIV -4 23 6 11 16 2 -18 4 -7 28 33 29 18 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -2 1 0 -23 -21 LAND (KM) 721 626 511 397 276 120 7 -28 -28 91 296 570 613 LAT (DEG N) 31.6 31.9 32.3 32.8 33.5 34.4 34.8 35.2 35.5 35.5 35.8 36.6 38.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.6 70.6 71.8 72.9 73.9 75.2 76.4 77.0 76.6 74.9 72.6 68.6 62.7 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 11 9 6 4 2 5 8 13 21 28 HEAT CONTENT 33 30 26 28 39 43 63 63 57 17 38 42 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. -7. -14. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 19. 22. 25. 26. 25. 22. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.6 69.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 35.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.07 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.66 0.8 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 58.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 245.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 11.4% Logistic: 2.7% 7.9% 3.2% 1.6% 0.0% 2.8% 6.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.0% 6.4% 3.3% 0.5% 0.0% 3.0% 5.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/28/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 39 44 49 37 31 34 33 30 23 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 41 46 34 28 31 30 27 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 36 41 29 23 26 25 22 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 33 21 15 18 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT