* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 45 47 47 46 44 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 33 29 28 29 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 27 29 26 27 27 32 32 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 18 16 13 13 19 17 18 23 26 37 42 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -5 -2 -7 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 98 114 130 159 177 200 256 239 279 262 267 253 266 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 154 154 156 152 148 147 143 147 152 149 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 134 132 132 133 124 119 116 111 119 126 130 127 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -53.6 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 7 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 41 44 51 48 52 57 62 60 57 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -26 -39 -52 -65 -49 -44 -18 -41 17 28 41 50 200 MB DIV -22 -6 8 -1 10 16 -12 1 5 35 19 40 30 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 4 -9 -6 -27 LAND (KM) 812 707 590 468 333 127 0 -50 -80 -16 106 391 807 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.7 32.1 32.6 33.2 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.3 35.2 34.8 34.8 34.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.6 69.7 70.9 72.1 73.4 75.0 76.4 77.3 77.7 76.8 75.0 71.7 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 7 5 3 1 7 10 16 21 HEAT CONTENT 37 35 29 23 31 46 62 51 46 62 41 20 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -9. -17. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.4 68.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 28.8 to 2.9 0.55 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 31.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.63 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.10 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.72 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 35.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 213.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.7% 9.6% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% Logistic: 2.8% 9.6% 3.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.6% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 8.3% 4.5% 3.2% 0.0% 0.2% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 33 29 28 29 27 22 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 34 39 31 27 26 27 25 20 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 35 27 23 22 23 21 16 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 27 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT