* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 48 52 56 58 57 52 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 34 29 28 30 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 28 30 27 27 27 30 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 17 15 13 16 21 16 23 21 33 36 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 0 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -4 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 129 98 122 133 164 195 228 265 260 268 258 253 244 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.8 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 154 152 154 153 146 142 142 142 146 148 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 131 131 133 128 117 113 110 113 120 127 128 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 6 8 4 7 4 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 39 41 41 40 40 47 47 48 52 56 58 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 8 10 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR -40 -21 -28 -44 -57 -64 -37 -27 -25 -9 30 55 61 200 MB DIV -25 -20 -16 7 -7 22 0 -18 13 17 53 29 35 700-850 TADV 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 6 -12 -23 LAND (KM) 881 784 672 555 418 162 8 -55 -85 -89 27 261 614 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.6 32.0 32.4 33.0 34.4 35.3 35.6 35.6 35.8 35.7 35.8 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 67.8 68.8 69.9 71.1 72.4 74.6 75.9 76.9 77.4 77.2 75.6 73.0 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 12 12 10 5 3 1 4 8 14 18 HEAT CONTENT 29 40 34 26 23 50 5 51 44 39 11 37 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 3.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -2. -8. -14. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 23. 27. 31. 33. 32. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.3 67.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.59 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.37 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 219.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.8% 9.0% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 2.8% 10.8% 4.7% 2.5% 0.0% 1.8% 3.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 2.6% 8.3% 4.6% 3.2% 0.0% 0.6% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 34 29 28 30 29 25 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 36 42 32 27 26 28 27 23 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 31 37 27 22 21 23 22 18 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT