* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 48 53 54 52 49 42 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 48 53 54 52 49 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 31 33 36 40 43 44 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 11 14 14 13 18 18 21 28 37 49 60 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -4 -1 0 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 0 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 142 113 85 109 121 177 204 251 239 269 254 251 235 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.1 27.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 155 152 152 150 145 142 142 138 138 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 131 134 132 130 130 122 115 111 113 114 119 114 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -55.3 -55.3 -54.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 7 5 7 4 4 700-500 MB RH 43 41 42 42 40 43 48 47 47 51 54 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -44 -24 -29 -39 -62 -42 -32 -23 -35 13 22 40 200 MB DIV -18 -16 -21 -10 2 5 16 -12 -4 0 27 21 47 700-850 TADV 2 -1 0 5 0 0 0 1 0 2 7 -4 -17 LAND (KM) 996 936 859 748 637 369 160 81 58 74 192 351 406 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.2 31.4 31.8 32.2 33.4 34.9 35.6 36.2 36.7 37.5 38.2 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 66.6 67.2 68.0 69.1 70.2 72.7 74.3 75.0 75.2 75.0 73.2 70.1 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 9 10 11 12 7 4 2 5 10 18 25 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 33 39 31 27 47 16 5 2 7 11 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 26. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. -1. -7. -16. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 18. 23. 28. 29. 27. 24. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.0 66.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.36 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.58 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.05 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 25.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 214.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 14.3% 9.4% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 13.6% Logistic: 2.4% 9.7% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 1.9% 4.8% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.1% 4.6% 3.3% 0.0% 0.7% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 43 48 53 54 52 49 42 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 41 46 51 52 50 47 40 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 36 41 46 47 45 42 35 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 28 33 38 39 37 34 27 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT