* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 45 49 53 52 52 51 48 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 39 45 49 36 30 28 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 34 36 38 31 28 27 27 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 12 9 9 14 15 15 21 14 24 23 33 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 0 0 -1 0 -4 -3 -3 -2 1 -5 SHEAR DIR 143 142 147 132 140 173 189 230 270 272 281 270 272 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 156 153 152 154 153 149 149 147 149 154 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 133 132 130 130 131 126 121 120 116 117 124 126 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 7 8 4 8 5 9 5 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 42 42 42 47 47 49 56 59 57 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -32 -36 -23 -34 -58 -52 -30 -29 -17 -4 33 30 200 MB DIV -12 -20 -21 -21 -9 -7 5 -5 -22 23 3 29 11 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 3 2 1 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 -7 LAND (KM) 1012 930 839 734 629 382 148 14 -62 -115 -94 -15 72 LAT (DEG N) 31.0 31.3 31.6 31.9 32.2 33.2 34.4 34.9 35.0 34.9 34.6 34.0 33.4 LONG(DEG W) 66.4 67.2 68.1 69.2 70.3 72.7 74.8 76.2 77.8 78.7 79.0 78.5 77.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 9 10 11 11 8 7 5 3 2 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 22 24 37 38 30 26 50 11 49 36 39 47 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. -4. -9. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 20. 24. 28. 27. 27. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.0 66.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 30.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.65 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.03 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.70 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 207.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.73 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.3% 11.0% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% Logistic: 2.9% 10.1% 4.1% 1.8% 0.0% 1.1% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.9% 5.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.4% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 39 45 49 36 30 28 27 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 36 42 46 33 27 25 24 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 37 41 28 22 20 19 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 28 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT