* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 40 46 49 50 50 48 46 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 26 29 34 40 46 49 50 40 33 34 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 26 29 31 33 34 30 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 8 7 11 14 19 25 19 27 27 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 0 0 -4 0 -2 0 -3 -3 0 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 230 261 125 133 119 135 189 199 225 262 271 282 273 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.8 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.7 28.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 154 154 150 149 151 150 146 142 144 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 126 128 128 130 127 126 126 121 116 111 114 120 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 5 8 6 9 700-500 MB RH 45 44 45 44 42 41 42 48 51 52 56 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -36 -26 -34 -41 -38 -68 -70 -53 -47 -47 -38 -6 200 MB DIV -17 -19 -20 -4 -3 -4 -2 9 7 -7 -3 -4 -10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 5 1 2 0 -1 -2 0 2 LAND (KM) 1159 1131 1079 1007 924 719 488 258 117 11 -20 -11 63 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.4 31.7 32.3 33.1 34.2 34.9 35.2 35.4 35.4 35.0 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.1 65.6 66.2 67.0 69.1 71.4 73.5 74.8 76.0 76.6 76.4 75.4 STM SPEED (KT) 1 4 6 7 8 10 11 9 6 4 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 26 26 36 22 42 50 80 57 57 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 715 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 3. -2. -7. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 14. 20. 26. 29. 30. 30. 28. 26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.6 64.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 161.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 9.4% 4.1% 1.7% 0.0% 2.3% 8.4% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/27/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 26 29 34 40 46 49 50 40 33 34 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 31 37 43 46 47 37 30 31 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 26 32 38 41 42 32 25 26 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT