* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 08/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 28 31 37 43 50 53 53 54 51 48 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 28 31 37 43 50 53 53 54 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 33 36 38 39 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 4 9 8 14 15 25 24 22 28 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 2 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 256 229 246 142 136 131 160 203 212 248 256 270 258 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 155 155 153 148 148 148 147 145 144 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 127 128 129 129 125 124 121 116 113 116 128 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 43 43 42 41 44 52 52 54 60 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -29 -37 -28 -34 -26 -50 -68 -63 -69 -60 -74 -54 200 MB DIV -18 -10 -14 -19 -5 -14 -1 4 7 -16 0 -1 10 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 1 9 LAND (KM) 1173 1151 1115 1070 999 831 623 412 237 146 126 199 403 LAT (DEG N) 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.0 31.4 31.9 32.7 33.6 34.7 35.4 35.8 36.2 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 64.8 65.0 65.3 65.7 66.3 68.0 70.0 72.0 73.5 74.3 74.5 73.6 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 7 9 9 9 6 3 2 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 28 27 26 26 26 40 26 25 47 46 25 43 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 7. 3. -1. -7. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 17. 23. 30. 33. 33. 34. 31. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.5 64.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.85 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 26.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.05 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.71 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 37.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.3% 3.1% 1.3% 0.0% 2.1% 10.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.7% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 08/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 08/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 23 26 28 31 37 43 50 53 53 54 51 48 18HR AGO 20 19 22 24 27 33 39 46 49 49 50 47 44 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 33 40 43 43 44 41 38 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT