* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/27/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 43 41 41 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 35 31 28 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 31 29 28 31 36 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 15 13 19 21 21 22 23 25 17 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -4 -1 -2 -4 0 -10 -3 -6 -1 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 203 208 206 187 173 179 162 190 182 212 196 223 219 SST (C) 25.3 25.0 25.4 26.0 25.9 24.2 23.2 23.0 22.9 23.0 23.5 23.8 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 108 114 113 97 90 88 87 88 91 93 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 92 95 100 98 84 77 75 75 75 77 79 78 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.6 -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 -56.7 200 MB VXT (C) -1.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 6 4 6 5 8 5 7 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 53 50 53 55 61 60 52 45 43 50 48 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 5 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -21 -38 -34 -19 -23 -14 -18 12 -39 -16 -24 -22 200 MB DIV 3 15 -16 19 53 17 23 34 5 1 18 -5 7 700-850 TADV 9 6 3 9 9 3 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 LAND (KM) 596 528 456 384 301 119 38 -14 -52 -42 6 7 17 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 74.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 9 6 3 2 2 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 1. -2. -7. -10. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.2 74.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.45 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.41 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.19 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.34 0.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 26.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 164.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 10.0% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 7.7% 3.5% 1.2% 0.0% 1.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.9% 3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/27/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 37 40 41 35 31 28 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 35 38 39 33 29 26 28 28 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 35 29 25 22 24 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT