* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/27/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 48 47 48 48 51 51 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 41 34 30 28 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 35 38 35 31 29 28 34 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 18 18 10 9 18 15 21 16 26 12 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 -4 0 -7 -4 -7 -7 -4 -9 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 222 190 198 191 152 166 162 173 193 181 194 195 223 SST (C) 25.8 25.3 25.0 25.5 26.1 25.1 23.4 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.2 23.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 112 108 105 110 115 105 92 87 87 88 89 93 94 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 96 94 97 100 90 79 75 75 75 76 79 80 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.0 -56.7 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -57.1 -56.9 -57.1 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -1.1 -1.2 -1.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 4 7 5 8 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 60 59 53 49 51 55 61 60 56 53 53 56 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 10 10 10 11 11 8 9 8 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 2 2 -18 -37 -31 -25 -27 -14 -15 -16 -10 6 -7 200 MB DIV 3 -5 4 -4 18 22 9 34 34 12 15 16 11 700-850 TADV 4 9 9 4 7 4 3 0 -1 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) 714 615 529 444 369 196 57 -14 -28 -30 -18 5 32 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 2 2 2 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 17. 18. 17. 18. 18. 21. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.6 72.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.13 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.35 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 40.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 169.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.77 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/27/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 43 47 41 34 30 28 33 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 41 45 39 32 28 26 31 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 40 34 27 23 21 26 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 32 26 19 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT