* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/27/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 46 47 48 46 48 49 48 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 43 46 47 36 31 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 36 38 40 33 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 25 14 18 17 12 15 17 16 17 17 21 17 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -3 -2 -6 -4 -6 -2 -5 -2 -8 SHEAR DIR 232 219 191 196 186 149 169 156 215 191 222 215 227 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.0 25.9 24.3 23.1 22.9 22.9 22.8 21.4 19.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 108 104 105 113 98 89 88 89 89 83 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 95 92 93 97 85 76 75 77 77 73 68 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.4 -57.1 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -56.9 -56.7 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.0 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 4 6 5 7 4 7 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 54 50 52 56 61 57 55 52 54 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 3 -19 -34 -25 -41 -26 -28 -12 -56 -25 -39 200 MB DIV 16 6 -3 -3 17 42 14 17 30 8 6 22 6 700-850 TADV 4 3 8 9 4 6 3 1 0 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 760 714 634 563 489 297 114 9 -33 -47 -90 -85 -10 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 11 9 7 3 3 4 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 741 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 16. 17. 18. 16. 18. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.0 72.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.45 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 50.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 154.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.1% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/27/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/27/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 43 46 47 36 31 28 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 40 43 44 33 28 25 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 38 39 28 23 20 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 30 31 20 15 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT