* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/26/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 36 41 45 46 48 49 52 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 36 41 45 46 40 32 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 29 33 31 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 37 30 18 19 8 11 10 15 9 11 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 0 -2 -1 -4 -3 -5 -2 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 220 219 231 219 196 219 154 171 140 209 190 225 196 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.7 25.8 24.9 23.7 23.3 23.4 22.5 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 110 110 107 103 103 111 103 93 90 91 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 96 94 91 90 95 88 80 77 78 76 72 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -56.8 -56.9 -57.2 -56.9 -56.7 -57.0 -57.1 -57.3 -57.6 -57.6 -57.5 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 5 5 4 6 4 5 700-500 MB RH 54 54 53 54 53 48 52 58 65 63 63 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -9 -15 -10 -9 -31 -18 -28 -20 -25 -8 -11 11 200 MB DIV 24 9 1 11 -5 9 34 22 27 18 30 13 26 700-850 TADV 4 3 3 5 4 6 7 2 2 0 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 816 855 834 760 697 492 302 143 28 -20 -57 -35 -11 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 4 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 16. 20. 21. 23. 24. 27. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 27.1 70.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.03 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.38 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 38.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 146.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/26/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 34 36 41 45 46 40 32 29 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 34 39 43 44 38 30 27 26 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 29 34 38 39 33 25 22 21 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 20 25 29 30 24 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT