* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/26/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 56 60 60 60 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 29 34 34 30 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 36 29 17 16 3 4 4 6 6 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 -3 -4 -4 -1 -6 SHEAR DIR 237 214 214 229 215 199 76 132 138 192 219 193 209 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.6 25.1 24.6 26.0 25.1 23.7 23.0 22.9 22.6 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 111 110 106 102 113 104 94 88 88 87 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 99 98 97 94 90 98 89 81 76 76 75 72 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.6 -56.5 -56.9 -57.2 -56.7 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.5 -57.7 -57.8 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.3 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 5 6 5 7 5 7 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 53 54 52 51 51 46 46 50 57 59 59 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR -3 0 0 -10 -2 -13 -22 -21 -21 -13 -11 9 0 200 MB DIV -8 22 14 3 10 -1 6 21 16 18 20 8 10 700-850 TADV 2 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 767 802 848 796 710 557 352 196 76 -14 -68 -78 -162 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.0 28.6 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.1 32.9 33.5 34.2 35.2 LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.4 71.2 72.1 73.1 75.0 77.2 78.8 79.7 80.0 80.0 79.6 79.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 10 10 9 6 5 3 4 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 700 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 28. 31. 35. 35. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 69.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.15 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 52.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.48 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 152.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/26/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/26/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 35 39 43 48 53 46 36 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 32 36 40 45 50 43 33 27 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 30 34 39 44 37 27 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 26 31 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT