* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL912016 05/25/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 33 35 38 39 41 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 33 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 19 18 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 39 35 39 40 32 34 13 19 3 12 18 23 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 2 4 2 1 -2 -1 -1 -5 -4 0 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 244 238 232 237 229 215 225 216 281 193 179 207 237 SST (C) 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 24.9 24.0 24.7 24.8 22.7 20.6 20.6 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 113 112 111 105 99 104 104 90 79 79 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 101 98 98 97 93 89 92 92 79 71 70 76 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -56.3 -56.7 -57.5 -57.4 -57.5 -57.5 -57.7 -57.5 -57.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.1 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 7 4 8 5 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 52 52 50 48 47 48 53 54 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 4 3 5 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -30 -13 -8 -12 -17 -23 -25 -34 -56 -48 -32 -22 -9 200 MB DIV -11 22 28 -2 11 26 16 -4 -2 27 13 15 -1 700-850 TADV 4 1 -5 -5 2 2 4 0 3 2 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 620 690 745 790 856 910 616 358 128 -81 -228 -293 -268 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 25.6 26.1 26.6 27.3 28.9 30.6 31.9 32.8 33.4 33.9 33.7 32.5 LONG(DEG W) 68.0 67.8 67.7 68.0 68.5 69.8 72.2 74.8 77.9 80.4 82.3 83.4 84.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 7 9 11 14 14 13 10 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 4 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 692 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 1. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 25.0 68.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912016 INVEST 05/25/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 12.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 115.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912016 INVEST 05/25/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912016 INVEST 05/25/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 23 24 27 29 30 33 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 25 27 28 31 28 26 25 25 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 21 23 24 27 24 22 21 21 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT