* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 54 55 54 53 52 50 46 40 34 29 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 54 55 54 53 52 50 46 40 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 51 50 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 35 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 244 239 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.2 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 124 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 125 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 145 195 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 148 100 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 48 56 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 490 529 636 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.0 31.5 34.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.6 72.4 69.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 39 37 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 40 CX,CY: 28/ 28 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -20. -26. -31. -35. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 0. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. -0. -4. -10. -16. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 29.0 75.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.01 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.79 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.77 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.44 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.3 -29.7 to 181.5 0.65 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 366.7 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 97.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 54 55 54 53 52 50 46 40 34 29 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 52 51 50 49 47 43 37 31 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 46 45 44 42 38 32 26 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 40 39 38 36 32 26 20 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT