* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/13/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 87 85 83 83 83 87 81 67 51 35 33 31 V (KT) LAND 90 87 85 83 83 83 87 81 67 52 37 35 33 V (KT) LGEM 90 87 84 81 81 84 82 68 51 39 35 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 11 12 7 8 26 34 47 36 26 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -5 -3 -5 -3 9 3 0 3 0 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 338 338 307 249 220 204 178 172 211 233 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.3 25.0 24.2 22.0 18.7 14.4 13.1 12.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 113 112 110 108 104 92 81 74 71 69 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 98 99 98 98 95 85 76 71 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.4 -56.0 -55.9 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -54.8 -54.2 -53.6 -52.5 -52.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.3 2.0 1.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 53 55 57 55 47 50 47 55 50 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 26 24 26 30 42 47 44 36 26 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 24 57 96 110 104 65 23 57 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 7 19 44 50 42 41 83 106 35 28 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 8 8 4 -2 -34 -76 -87 -58 29 -17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1908 1835 1762 1650 1550 1240 807 525 173 69 134 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 31.9 32.4 33.3 34.1 36.3 40.0 45.1 50.9 55.7 59.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 33.3 32.2 31.1 29.4 27.6 22.9 18.5 15.0 12.0 8.2 3.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 14 17 19 24 27 29 29 25 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. -27. -35. -43. -49. -53. -55. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -1. 3. 16. 23. 19. 8. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -3. -9. -23. -39. -55. -57. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 31.4 33.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.58 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 529.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.42 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 44.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 5.0% 3.0% 1.2% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/13/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 87 85 83 83 83 87 81 67 52 37 35 33 18HR AGO 90 89 87 85 85 85 89 83 69 54 39 37 35 12HR AGO 90 87 86 84 84 84 88 82 68 53 38 36 34 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 80 80 84 78 64 49 34 32 30 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 71 75 69 55 40 25 23 21 IN 6HR 90 87 78 72 69 67 71 65 51 36 21 19 17 IN 12HR 90 87 85 76 70 66 70 64 50 35 20 18 16