* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OPHELIA AL172017 10/11/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 63 68 71 70 71 69 71 76 77 77 73 V (KT) LAND 55 60 63 68 71 70 71 69 71 76 77 77 73 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 69 70 69 67 68 70 70 65 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 13 11 12 18 13 16 12 15 27 51 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -8 -5 -4 -4 0 -5 -3 0 14 13 4 SHEAR DIR 318 304 314 352 10 331 358 331 306 239 213 206 212 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.0 25.5 24.9 24.1 22.4 20.6 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 115 115 115 115 114 111 107 102 92 84 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 96 96 96 98 99 98 96 92 83 77 72 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.1 -56.2 -56.3 -56.2 -56.3 -56.0 -55.0 -53.8 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 6 5 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 51 52 52 53 53 51 43 48 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 26 27 24 25 24 25 29 34 42 46 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -7 -9 -7 -12 3 15 83 116 126 143 -9 200 MB DIV -5 16 -10 -17 -8 -17 -27 0 43 47 28 18 13 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 1 2 2 8 6 -1 -35 -48 -55 -24 LAND (KM) 2168 2134 2100 2090 2080 2004 1887 1702 1463 1209 796 473 229 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.0 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.8 31.7 32.8 34.2 36.2 38.8 41.6 44.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 36.4 36.0 35.8 35.6 34.7 32.9 30.2 26.5 22.5 18.4 14.6 11.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 7 11 15 18 20 20 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 9 4 4 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):135/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -6. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 19. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 13. 16. 15. 16. 14. 16. 21. 22. 22. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 30.0 36.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.69 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 5.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.12 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 327.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.62 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 69.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 17.1% 13.9% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 8.1% 4.5% 1.4% 0.2% 1.3% 2.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 3.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 8.5% 6.1% 3.6% 999.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL172017 OPHELIA 10/11/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 63 68 71 70 71 69 71 76 77 77 73 18HR AGO 55 54 57 62 65 64 65 63 65 70 71 71 67 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 58 59 57 59 64 65 65 61 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 47 48 46 48 53 54 54 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT