* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 49 47 45 40 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 49 47 45 40 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 48 45 43 41 38 34 31 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 14 12 12 9 18 25 33 26 30 34 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -7 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -4 -5 -3 -3 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 240 241 211 197 218 260 255 274 268 283 272 281 269 SST (C) 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.3 23.2 22.8 22.8 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.3 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 90 89 89 88 88 87 87 86 85 86 86 84 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 76 75 73 73 74 74 73 72 70 72 72 71 70 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -52.5 -51.9 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.7 1.0 1.1 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.9 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 2 1 4 3 6 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 41 40 43 44 43 44 46 43 45 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 31 31 30 27 24 20 16 10 6 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 44 17 17 17 6 6 -21 -61 -71 -92 -89 -36 -10 200 MB DIV 43 -4 -3 2 28 -16 -14 -40 -24 -60 -12 4 45 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -1 -1 1 1 0 0 -1 -2 1 4 LAND (KM) 301 313 328 322 317 287 275 262 268 262 237 210 186 LAT (DEG N) 39.4 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.3 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.2 39.3 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 68.1 67.8 67.9 68.0 68.6 69.6 70.0 69.9 70.0 70.5 70.9 71.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 0 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -22. -23. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 3. -0. -4. -7. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -14. -20. -27. -35. -42. -46. -47. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -6. -8. -10. -15. -21. -29. -39. -52. -62. -70. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 39.4 68.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 361.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 70.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 49 47 45 40 34 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 48 46 41 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 42 36 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 38 32 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT