* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 49 47 43 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 51 49 47 43 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 49 48 45 43 43 42 40 36 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 14 17 22 13 11 11 23 32 42 39 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 2 0 -4 -2 -1 -1 -3 -6 -6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 240 236 219 224 242 209 262 254 280 272 287 290 292 SST (C) 24.9 24.2 23.2 23.1 23.0 23.5 23.7 24.4 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.4 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 98 91 90 88 90 92 98 101 100 96 96 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 86 83 77 76 74 74 76 80 82 81 78 78 79 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -51.5 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 5 5 4 2 0 1 1 4 2 5 3 700-500 MB RH 51 52 50 45 42 42 43 45 46 47 47 50 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 35 36 35 35 32 29 26 22 19 14 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 53 60 64 47 23 14 8 -3 -25 -66 -107 -51 8 200 MB DIV 49 39 44 45 1 -7 6 -25 -44 -29 -35 -11 4 700-850 TADV 7 4 -1 -4 -2 -2 1 2 3 3 2 2 18 LAND (KM) 343 316 295 297 308 339 340 356 364 349 321 313 319 LAT (DEG N) 38.1 38.7 39.2 39.4 39.6 39.5 39.3 38.8 38.4 38.3 38.5 38.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 70.6 69.9 69.2 68.6 68.0 67.6 67.9 68.6 69.4 69.9 70.1 70.3 70.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 3 1 2 4 3 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -7. -12. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -21. -26. -34. -40. -46. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -16. -20. -26. -34. -47. -58. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 38.1 70.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.46 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.91 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 342.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 23.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 52 51 49 47 43 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 51 49 45 41 37 31 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 47 43 39 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 43 39 35 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT