* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 55 53 47 44 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 55 53 47 44 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 57 55 53 50 47 46 45 42 39 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 15 13 13 14 14 15 11 22 27 42 41 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 0 1 0 -4 -1 -4 -5 -4 -8 -8 SHEAR DIR 211 220 230 229 235 224 240 251 274 292 288 294 291 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 24.1 23.3 22.6 23.0 24.0 24.3 24.4 24.7 25.4 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 108 103 97 92 87 88 93 95 96 98 104 105 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 89 86 82 78 74 74 77 77 78 80 84 84 83 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -53.2 -52.4 -52.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.4 2.1 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 3 5 5 2 1 0 1 1 4 2 4 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 48 45 42 42 46 48 50 47 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 37 36 36 32 31 28 24 21 17 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 66 55 70 67 44 18 13 12 -16 -41 -92 -93 11 200 MB DIV 55 61 44 30 23 -2 16 -12 -19 -13 -17 -13 22 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 2 2 2 4 LAND (KM) 351 341 312 300 283 324 367 379 377 385 411 404 378 LAT (DEG N) 37.6 38.2 38.7 39.2 39.6 39.7 39.3 39.1 39.0 38.8 38.4 38.3 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.1 70.5 69.9 69.2 68.5 67.6 67.4 67.5 67.7 67.9 68.2 68.7 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 5 3 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 737 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -1. -5. -11. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -16. -21. -27. -33. -39. -42. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -7. -13. -16. -21. -28. -37. -47. -59. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.6 71.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.4 to -3.0 0.52 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 360.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 10.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 55 53 47 44 39 32 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 56 54 48 45 40 33 24 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 52 46 43 38 31 22 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 42 39 34 27 18 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT