* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 63 61 56 53 48 44 37 30 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 63 61 56 53 48 44 37 30 20 DIS V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 62 59 54 50 49 49 48 47 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 17 17 13 16 13 12 12 20 26 35 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -3 2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 213 208 215 221 228 232 221 264 258 289 290 298 294 SST (C) 26.2 25.6 24.6 23.8 22.8 22.7 23.7 24.4 25.1 25.3 25.6 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 109 101 96 89 87 92 96 102 103 105 107 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 85 81 76 74 76 79 82 83 83 86 86 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.9 2.2 1.9 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 5 4 2 0 2 1 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 53 52 52 51 49 43 40 42 45 46 45 46 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 38 37 38 37 35 34 30 28 26 23 20 16 850 MB ENV VOR 71 59 57 66 63 23 24 27 14 -2 -43 -81 -57 200 MB DIV 37 54 63 51 31 -6 5 3 -14 -17 -40 -52 12 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 2 0 -3 -3 0 0 0 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 355 354 323 301 278 310 364 393 421 428 441 437 445 LAT (DEG N) 36.9 37.6 38.3 38.9 39.4 39.8 39.5 39.2 38.8 38.6 38.4 38.3 38.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.5 71.1 70.6 69.9 69.1 67.7 67.2 67.1 67.2 67.4 67.5 67.8 68.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 4 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -16. -20. -23. -26. -27. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -5. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -12. -17. -21. -28. -35. -45. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.9 71.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.47 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 3.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.02 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 346.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 32.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 63 61 56 53 48 44 37 30 20 DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 62 60 55 52 47 43 36 29 19 DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 58 53 50 45 41 34 27 17 DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 48 45 40 36 29 22 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT