* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 62 59 57 57 55 50 44 41 37 33 25 V (KT) LAND 70 65 62 59 57 57 55 50 44 41 37 33 25 V (KT) LGEM 70 66 63 61 60 57 53 50 47 46 47 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 28 28 29 20 20 13 19 11 7 6 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 0 -7 -5 -3 -4 -2 -1 -3 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 237 226 214 235 248 196 220 224 211 220 255 297 314 SST (C) 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.1 26.5 24.6 22.5 21.5 22.3 23.2 24.2 25.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 128 124 118 101 87 82 85 89 96 101 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 107 107 106 103 98 84 75 70 72 74 79 82 86 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.0 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 4 1 1 0 2 3 700-500 MB RH 60 56 55 56 56 53 49 40 38 40 44 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 37 37 36 38 36 34 30 27 25 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 65 59 58 64 72 38 22 20 12 -6 -37 200 MB DIV 61 55 34 10 38 47 47 23 2 8 -21 -19 -35 700-850 TADV 24 19 8 18 15 1 4 -2 -1 -1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 483 442 411 404 382 326 251 227 284 325 353 391 443 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 34.3 35.1 35.9 36.7 38.2 39.4 40.0 39.9 39.6 39.0 38.6 38.2 LONG(DEG W) 71.2 71.3 71.4 71.3 71.3 70.8 69.9 68.9 68.0 67.7 68.2 68.2 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 9 25 38 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -15. -21. -25. -29. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. 1. -1. -5. -11. -15. -19. -23. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -15. -20. -26. -29. -33. -37. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 33.5 71.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.07 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.12 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.55 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 344.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.60 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 49.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.51 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 5.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.0% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 62 59 57 57 55 50 44 41 37 33 25 18HR AGO 70 69 66 63 61 61 59 54 48 45 41 37 29 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 61 61 59 54 48 45 41 37 29 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 58 58 56 51 45 42 38 34 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT