* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 71 68 66 64 63 60 54 47 42 37 32 25 V (KT) LAND 75 71 68 66 64 63 60 54 47 42 37 32 25 V (KT) LGEM 75 72 70 68 66 63 58 53 48 46 47 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 35 27 27 29 16 17 21 17 11 11 15 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 -1 2 1 -5 -3 -2 -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 228 230 227 215 232 200 227 223 235 226 266 274 287 SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.6 26.0 23.5 21.4 21.1 22.2 23.9 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 131 132 132 131 113 93 82 79 84 94 101 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 109 109 109 108 94 80 71 69 72 78 82 83 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -50.8 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.2 1.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 5 2 2 0 2 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 57 57 56 55 54 48 40 41 44 48 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 37 37 37 37 37 34 31 28 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 55 64 66 66 58 66 62 71 26 27 10 1 -26 200 MB DIV 81 65 33 37 26 75 55 35 8 -5 5 -14 -30 700-850 TADV 22 17 19 9 17 4 1 -5 -2 -2 1 1 0 LAND (KM) 519 477 444 418 406 354 279 227 255 310 367 414 442 LAT (DEG N) 32.6 33.3 34.0 34.8 35.6 37.4 38.9 39.9 40.2 39.8 39.0 38.5 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.4 71.2 70.2 69.1 68.1 67.7 67.9 67.9 67.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 9 7 5 3 3 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 19 14 9 9 11 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -21. -27. -31. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -7. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -15. -21. -28. -33. -38. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 32.6 71.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.08 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 361.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.58 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 29.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 8.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 71 68 66 64 63 60 54 47 42 37 32 25 18HR AGO 75 74 71 69 67 66 63 57 50 45 40 35 28 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 66 63 57 50 45 40 35 28 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 62 59 53 46 41 36 31 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT