* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 74 71 69 68 65 59 52 44 38 34 29 V (KT) LAND 80 77 74 71 69 68 65 59 52 44 38 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 80 79 76 74 71 67 62 55 50 47 47 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 32 34 33 26 18 26 21 24 14 12 9 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 0 -1 2 -4 -7 -2 -3 -1 -3 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 226 224 230 226 221 220 199 228 203 242 266 285 SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.6 26.6 23.9 21.4 20.7 21.7 23.7 25.0 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 132 132 131 119 96 82 79 82 93 101 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 110 110 108 99 82 72 69 71 78 82 85 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 4 2 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 56 53 54 54 52 40 36 37 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 36 37 38 37 35 33 29 27 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 65 71 72 66 70 74 54 32 31 13 -6 200 MB DIV 65 76 67 55 46 53 48 59 44 22 15 -10 -2 700-850 TADV 23 23 15 19 7 8 2 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 555 497 450 412 384 352 275 202 208 288 391 452 475 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.7 38.6 39.8 40.2 40.0 39.3 38.7 38.3 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.7 71.7 71.1 70.2 68.9 67.8 67.0 66.8 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 5 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 11 7 8 27 0 0 0 0 2 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -15. -23. -30. -35. -39. -41. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -13. -11. -9. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -4. -10. -14. -18. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -15. -21. -28. -36. -42. -46. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.9 71.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.69 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.03 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 398.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.55 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 3.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 77 74 71 69 68 65 59 52 44 38 34 29 18HR AGO 80 79 76 73 71 70 67 61 54 46 40 36 31 12HR AGO 80 77 76 73 71 70 67 61 54 46 40 36 31 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 67 64 58 51 43 37 33 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT