* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 77 75 74 72 72 68 60 51 46 41 38 V (KT) LAND 80 79 77 75 74 72 72 68 60 51 46 41 38 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 82 80 77 71 64 58 52 48 47 49 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 32 34 30 35 28 25 17 20 18 16 12 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 7 -1 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -4 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 234 230 223 225 226 226 193 224 220 253 238 284 320 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.3 25.7 23.2 21.0 21.0 23.5 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 138 134 133 132 127 110 92 81 80 92 98 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 116 113 112 109 104 92 79 71 70 78 80 80 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.1 -51.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -53.1 -53.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 5 2 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 60 60 58 56 54 53 51 44 34 34 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 35 37 38 40 39 37 34 30 27 24 23 850 MB ENV VOR 50 60 67 65 67 61 79 77 73 25 24 6 -2 200 MB DIV 62 70 77 57 61 38 72 51 33 7 1 -13 -35 700-850 TADV 17 18 23 14 15 19 1 1 2 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 593 537 482 431 395 367 313 248 197 248 389 467 445 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.0 32.7 33.6 34.4 35.8 37.4 38.9 40.0 40.2 39.5 39.3 39.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.8 71.7 71.0 69.7 68.2 66.8 65.8 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 8 6 5 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 24 19 8 7 23 0 0 0 0 1 25 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -20. -27. -33. -36. -39. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -8. -7. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -7. -11. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -12. -20. -29. -34. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.2 71.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.11 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.77 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.05 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 405.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.54 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.8% 2.0% 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 4.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 79 77 75 74 72 72 68 60 51 46 41 38 18HR AGO 80 79 77 75 74 72 72 68 60 51 46 41 38 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 73 71 71 67 59 50 45 40 37 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 67 67 63 55 46 41 36 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT