* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 80 78 77 74 71 69 61 51 43 39 38 V (KT) LAND 80 80 80 78 77 74 71 69 61 51 43 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 80 82 83 81 78 71 66 61 54 49 47 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 31 35 34 34 32 19 21 18 23 14 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 4 4 -1 1 0 0 -5 -1 1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 250 233 227 228 228 220 218 193 218 216 211 241 310 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 26.7 24.6 22.1 20.8 21.5 22.7 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 148 143 137 134 132 132 120 101 86 80 83 87 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 115 112 109 109 99 84 74 71 72 74 78 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -52.1 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -52.9 -53.8 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 1.1 2.1 1.6 1.9 1.1 1.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 59 58 55 57 55 47 36 31 31 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 34 35 37 38 38 39 36 34 30 29 29 850 MB ENV VOR 49 51 63 72 65 73 61 76 103 38 32 14 4 200 MB DIV 52 55 67 72 49 36 51 58 60 25 32 4 -10 700-850 TADV 13 17 19 23 19 12 11 0 2 -4 -5 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 634 581 533 480 436 393 376 316 243 230 342 355 396 LAT (DEG N) 30.6 31.4 32.1 32.9 33.6 35.1 36.8 38.3 39.5 40.2 40.4 40.3 40.0 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.3 70.8 69.9 68.5 66.7 65.4 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 23 18 9 8 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -11. -18. -24. -30. -34. -38. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -14. -12. -10. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 6. 8. 4. -0. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -19. -29. -37. -41. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 30.6 71.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 32.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.14 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 80.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.07 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.42 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 457.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.49 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.6% 3.5% 2.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.6% 5.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 80 80 78 77 74 71 69 61 51 43 39 38 18HR AGO 80 79 79 77 76 73 70 68 60 50 42 38 37 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 73 70 67 65 57 47 39 35 34 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 69 66 63 61 53 43 35 31 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT