* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/17/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 70 69 69 70 69 70 69 65 57 49 45 V (KT) LAND 70 70 70 69 69 70 69 70 69 65 57 49 45 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 70 70 70 68 65 62 59 55 51 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 25 26 31 32 34 34 21 22 12 19 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 8 4 7 1 -2 -3 0 -3 -2 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 278 275 261 240 235 231 224 217 204 210 239 237 255 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 27.8 27.7 27.4 25.8 23.2 21.5 22.3 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 150 147 143 133 132 128 111 93 84 88 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 129 126 123 119 111 109 106 93 80 74 76 83 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.9 -53.1 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 4 1 1 700-500 MB RH 55 54 58 60 59 61 55 54 50 52 43 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 31 33 37 39 41 41 39 35 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 60 59 68 77 90 89 88 121 89 66 42 200 MB DIV 85 47 44 61 50 70 59 55 49 69 25 18 11 700-850 TADV 20 24 11 19 24 22 11 14 2 1 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 791 739 689 638 592 500 435 432 387 308 334 305 437 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.5 30.1 30.8 31.4 32.9 34.5 36.1 37.8 39.2 40.4 40.9 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.6 71.4 71.3 71.0 70.2 68.8 66.8 64.3 61.5 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 37 31 27 17 9 31 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 9. 11. 12. 8. 2. -4. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. 1. -1. -5. -13. -21. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.9 71.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.09 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.67 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.25 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 463.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 15.1% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 3.9% 2.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 6.3% 4.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/17/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/17/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 70 69 69 70 69 70 69 65 57 49 45 18HR AGO 70 69 69 68 68 69 68 69 68 64 56 48 44 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 66 65 66 65 61 53 45 41 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 61 60 61 60 56 48 40 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT