* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 70 70 69 69 72 70 66 58 54 50 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 70 70 69 69 72 70 66 58 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 70 71 71 71 70 67 64 59 53 49 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 27 24 31 38 34 32 20 17 17 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 5 9 5 1 0 -2 -1 -2 0 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 283 274 266 254 237 234 218 236 207 221 193 233 250 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.9 27.7 27.4 25.7 22.6 19.6 20.6 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 154 149 145 135 132 128 110 89 78 82 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 130 130 126 122 113 109 106 92 78 70 74 85 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.0 1.4 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 4 2 4 2 2 700-500 MB RH 55 55 55 57 59 58 54 53 55 53 52 42 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 32 31 32 35 38 42 42 41 37 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 48 58 59 77 81 69 72 79 112 84 71 200 MB DIV 99 72 36 31 67 58 97 22 54 56 33 37 26 700-850 TADV 12 9 15 13 16 31 12 17 8 3 1 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 809 757 707 650 600 477 413 398 360 259 209 245 436 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.5 31.2 32.9 34.4 36.0 37.7 39.3 40.8 41.3 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 72.0 72.0 72.0 71.8 71.7 71.7 71.6 71.4 70.9 69.9 68.2 65.2 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 10 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 44 44 41 35 28 17 7 30 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 693 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -9. -14. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -6. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 14. 13. 11. 5. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 2. 0. -3. -12. -16. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.6 72.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.73 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.27 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.43 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 488.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.46 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 16.4% 12.9% 8.9% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 5.1% 3.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.8% 7.2% 5.4% 3.5% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 71 70 70 69 69 72 70 66 58 54 50 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 69 68 68 71 69 65 57 53 49 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 64 64 67 65 61 53 49 45 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 59 59 62 60 56 48 44 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT