* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 71 71 71 72 74 77 76 72 67 60 54 V (KT) LAND 70 71 71 71 71 72 74 77 76 72 67 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 73 73 73 72 70 66 61 56 51 48 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 24 28 28 35 30 28 18 15 14 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 4 3 4 2 -4 -3 -1 -6 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 284 275 269 264 249 229 217 232 229 195 191 208 247 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.1 27.7 27.5 26.3 23.5 19.2 18.1 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 153 150 147 137 132 129 116 95 76 73 82 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 131 128 126 124 115 109 106 96 82 69 67 73 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -52.1 -51.7 -52.5 -52.7 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.8 1.2 1.6 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 9 6 6 3 3 2 3 1 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 56 57 57 58 54 56 55 55 45 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 28 30 31 35 38 41 41 39 37 34 30 850 MB ENV VOR 19 33 41 47 63 76 84 75 78 80 95 73 59 200 MB DIV 59 87 60 19 38 65 78 46 52 32 59 21 34 700-850 TADV 13 18 12 23 15 28 16 13 18 0 2 0 -3 LAND (KM) 804 749 684 636 592 475 388 370 342 261 102 216 246 LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.2 30.8 32.5 34.1 35.5 37.0 38.8 40.9 41.6 41.3 LONG(DEG W) 72.1 72.4 72.6 72.5 72.3 72.1 72.0 71.8 71.6 70.9 69.8 67.8 65.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 8 8 8 8 8 11 9 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 42 39 34 19 3 8 14 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -11. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 15. 15. 12. 8. 4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 6. 2. -3. -10. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 28.5 72.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.19 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.76 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.28 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 482.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 16.2% 12.7% 8.8% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 5.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 7.1% 5.3% 3.3% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 71 71 71 72 74 77 76 72 67 60 54 18HR AGO 70 69 69 69 69 70 72 75 74 70 65 58 52 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 67 69 72 71 67 62 55 49 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 61 63 66 65 61 56 49 43 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT