* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 71 70 70 72 73 77 79 76 70 62 55 V (KT) LAND 70 70 71 70 70 72 73 77 79 76 70 62 55 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 72 73 72 72 70 69 65 59 55 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 23 21 26 26 27 34 30 30 18 19 18 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 3 2 7 1 0 -5 0 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 295 290 278 275 270 235 234 216 241 208 231 217 242 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.5 26.6 24.6 21.0 17.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 158 155 152 144 135 132 129 119 102 83 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 134 131 129 121 112 109 106 98 86 73 67 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.5 -52.0 -53.0 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 5 2 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 57 59 59 58 59 58 58 55 51 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 29 28 28 32 34 39 41 39 36 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR -9 6 24 34 38 67 71 78 72 77 76 61 17 200 MB DIV 56 59 65 47 22 75 82 101 18 68 49 41 39 700-850 TADV 2 10 13 9 21 17 27 12 23 8 14 -4 1 LAND (KM) 837 807 777 729 670 551 468 397 356 360 319 203 208 LAT (DEG N) 27.6 28.1 28.6 29.2 29.8 31.3 32.6 33.9 35.2 36.7 38.3 40.0 41.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 72.0 72.4 72.5 72.5 72.3 72.1 72.0 72.0 71.6 70.7 69.5 67.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 40 42 41 29 19 4 3 29 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 0. -3. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 6. 9. 15. 18. 15. 9. 3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -0. 2. 3. 7. 9. 6. -0. -8. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 27.6 71.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.77 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.32 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 476.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.47 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 16.2% 12.6% 8.6% 7.6% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 6.4% 4.1% 1.5% 0.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 7.6% 5.6% 3.4% 2.7% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 71 70 70 72 73 77 79 76 70 62 55 18HR AGO 70 69 70 69 69 71 72 76 78 75 69 61 54 12HR AGO 70 67 66 65 65 67 68 72 74 71 65 57 50 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 62 63 67 69 66 60 52 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT