* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/16/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 66 69 69 72 76 78 80 77 73 65 55 V (KT) LAND 65 66 66 69 69 72 76 78 80 77 73 65 55 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 73 74 71 67 62 57 52 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 26 23 20 22 25 34 31 32 23 22 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 1 5 4 2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 287 297 292 283 271 256 236 227 223 226 211 224 225 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.3 25.8 22.8 19.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 160 158 155 149 138 134 131 127 112 90 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 136 133 130 125 115 110 107 105 93 78 69 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.0 -51.2 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -52.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.0 1.8 1.3 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 10 8 8 6 6 4 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 54 55 58 58 58 57 57 60 58 57 55 56 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 29 28 32 36 39 42 41 39 34 29 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -11 7 27 35 58 59 81 86 93 101 82 50 200 MB DIV 24 48 59 69 38 58 63 74 48 57 58 58 32 700-850 TADV -2 0 7 13 13 22 28 23 9 18 5 7 0 LAND (KM) 822 869 829 792 737 618 512 421 360 360 351 257 167 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.2 30.5 32.1 33.3 34.4 35.7 37.6 39.2 40.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.3 71.8 72.0 72.3 72.3 72.0 72.1 72.2 71.9 71.1 70.1 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 6 7 7 6 6 8 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 39 42 42 42 36 22 10 2 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 16. 14. 6. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 4. 4. 8. 11. 13. 15. 12. 8. -0. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 27.2 70.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.25 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.25 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.38 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 454.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.49 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 16.7% 12.8% 9.0% 7.8% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 7.3% 4.6% 1.9% 0.7% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.0% 5.8% 3.6% 2.8% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/16/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/16/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 66 66 69 69 72 76 78 80 77 73 65 55 18HR AGO 65 64 64 67 67 70 74 76 78 75 71 63 53 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 64 67 71 73 75 72 68 60 50 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 58 62 64 66 63 59 51 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT