* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 70 70 72 73 74 75 77 74 69 59 V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 70 70 72 73 74 75 77 74 69 59 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 69 70 71 71 71 70 67 63 60 56 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 22 25 23 20 27 29 34 30 20 16 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 1 4 6 2 3 3 0 -1 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 292 284 293 290 277 264 237 234 212 228 185 212 219 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.4 26.3 23.8 19.7 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 160 158 152 144 135 132 128 116 96 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 140 137 134 128 121 113 109 105 97 83 71 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 57 58 58 60 59 57 51 52 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 27 27 29 32 35 38 41 40 37 31 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -6 -8 5 25 46 53 75 86 81 90 103 65 200 MB DIV 28 28 47 60 75 31 67 63 89 27 86 54 28 700-850 TADV 5 1 -1 8 15 25 26 29 12 11 0 2 -1 LAND (KM) 785 834 871 828 785 670 558 453 371 343 342 282 153 LAT (DEG N) 26.8 27.3 27.8 28.3 28.7 29.8 31.3 32.8 34.1 35.5 37.0 38.7 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 69.9 70.6 71.3 71.8 72.3 72.5 72.2 72.1 72.2 72.1 71.6 70.6 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 6 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 37 39 39 42 32 18 1 7 17 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 14. 10. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 9. 4. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 26.8 69.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.34 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 65.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.89 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.41 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.37 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 472.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 18.2% 14.1% 9.8% 8.6% 12.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 10.4% 6.7% 3.5% 1.2% 2.8% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.2% 9.9% 7.1% 4.4% 3.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 68 70 70 72 73 74 75 77 74 69 59 18HR AGO 65 64 65 67 67 69 70 71 72 74 71 66 56 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 63 65 66 67 68 70 67 62 52 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 57 58 59 60 62 59 54 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT