* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 66 70 73 77 80 80 78 72 65 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 66 70 73 77 80 80 78 72 65 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 63 64 66 68 71 73 72 68 64 59 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 13 21 27 25 21 22 32 28 25 16 18 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 2 7 2 1 -2 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 320 300 281 290 293 271 254 230 221 222 213 208 208 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.4 27.9 27.7 26.8 25.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 163 163 161 155 149 141 134 131 121 111 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 142 140 137 130 125 118 111 108 100 93 78 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.2 -50.3 -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -51.1 -51.4 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.2 2.0 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 4 5 3 700-500 MB RH 53 55 54 55 56 57 58 58 59 56 54 54 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 26 24 27 31 35 39 41 41 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -3 1 -1 12 42 67 66 98 90 101 108 88 200 MB DIV 27 30 37 52 65 43 61 61 88 47 54 74 65 700-850 TADV -5 0 0 -2 4 14 20 31 23 21 14 8 9 LAND (KM) 739 780 822 862 818 737 610 506 419 362 327 325 255 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.8 27.2 27.7 28.2 29.1 30.4 31.8 33.2 34.6 36.0 37.5 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 69.8 70.7 71.3 71.9 72.5 72.6 72.4 72.2 72.1 72.2 71.5 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 29 30 33 37 39 41 42 26 11 31 29 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. -0. 3. 6. 11. 16. 18. 17. 12. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 6. 10. 13. 17. 20. 20. 18. 12. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 26.3 69.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.36 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 33.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.3 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.34 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 442.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.50 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 19.5% 15.0% 10.4% 9.0% 13.7% 11.6% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 17.1% 12.4% 9.3% 3.3% 5.1% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 12.5% 9.3% 6.6% 4.1% 6.3% 4.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 62 64 67 66 70 73 77 80 80 78 72 65 18HR AGO 60 59 61 64 63 67 70 74 77 77 75 69 62 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 58 62 65 69 72 72 70 64 57 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 53 56 60 63 63 61 55 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT