* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 64 64 66 67 69 74 75 77 77 74 66 V (KT) LAND 60 61 64 64 66 67 69 74 75 77 77 74 66 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 62 63 64 65 68 70 72 71 67 62 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 15 23 26 22 25 23 30 29 28 24 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 1 -1 1 0 -1 3 3 -4 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 332 328 309 294 297 292 269 233 228 213 237 211 223 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 161 163 163 163 162 158 153 147 138 131 132 128 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 144 143 142 140 134 128 123 115 109 108 105 94 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.5 -50.6 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.5 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 7 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 49 53 56 55 56 57 56 59 62 65 67 68 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 24 22 24 24 26 31 33 37 39 38 34 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -10 -2 -8 -6 25 40 59 77 79 68 74 79 200 MB DIV 18 18 16 19 41 83 29 58 61 74 11 95 68 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -1 -3 -10 12 14 19 20 17 20 17 5 LAND (KM) 686 715 752 795 834 802 719 620 526 450 433 451 408 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.1 26.5 27.0 27.4 28.4 29.5 30.7 32.1 33.5 34.9 36.3 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 69.1 69.9 70.6 71.3 72.1 72.1 72.0 71.8 71.6 71.2 70.7 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 7 7 7 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 28 29 33 38 39 40 39 25 10 5 22 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 613 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 7. 10. 14. 16. 15. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 14. 15. 17. 17. 14. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.7 68.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.21 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.48 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 464.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 19.1% 14.8% 10.4% 9.0% 13.5% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 13.4% 9.9% 7.0% 2.8% 7.3% 1.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 11.3% 8.4% 5.9% 4.0% 7.0% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 64 64 66 67 69 74 75 77 77 74 66 18HR AGO 60 59 62 62 64 65 67 72 73 75 75 72 64 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 58 59 61 66 67 69 69 66 58 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 53 55 60 61 63 63 60 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT