* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/15/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 64 64 65 70 73 75 79 79 74 72 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 64 64 65 70 73 75 79 79 74 72 V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 62 63 65 68 70 71 71 66 60 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 14 14 22 24 23 23 28 32 35 21 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 9 5 3 -1 0 2 2 8 0 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 346 332 320 293 289 285 269 247 223 216 220 219 216 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 163 163 163 161 155 148 144 136 132 128 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 143 144 144 142 137 130 123 120 114 109 105 94 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 11 11 10 10 8 8 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 50 52 53 58 59 58 57 60 60 62 57 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 24 25 23 25 29 32 35 40 42 40 41 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -7 -10 -1 -2 4 31 55 67 85 81 79 78 200 MB DIV 8 32 28 21 28 82 46 52 74 72 54 46 31 700-850 TADV -2 0 -3 -1 -6 3 9 16 17 22 18 13 4 LAND (KM) 665 683 713 761 811 797 727 624 558 475 395 391 363 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.7 26.1 26.6 27.1 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.3 32.7 34.4 35.9 37.2 LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.5 69.3 70.1 70.9 72.1 72.5 72.5 72.2 71.9 71.8 71.5 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 8 7 6 5 6 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 47 40 28 32 37 40 38 39 31 20 1 15 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. 4. 7. 10. 16. 18. 15. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 10. 13. 15. 19. 19. 14. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 25.3 67.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.53 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.24 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.55 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.49 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 472.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.48 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 6.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 17.3% 13.4% 9.6% 8.1% 12.6% 10.8% 5.7% Logistic: 4.3% 9.0% 6.0% 3.9% 1.7% 4.0% 0.7% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 9.0% 6.5% 4.5% 3.3% 5.6% 3.8% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/15/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/15/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 62 64 64 65 70 73 75 79 79 74 72 18HR AGO 60 59 60 62 62 63 68 71 73 77 77 72 70 12HR AGO 60 57 56 58 58 59 64 67 69 73 73 68 66 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 56 59 61 65 65 60 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT